159
agriculture. We noticed that for the period as a whole (1990-91 to 2009-10), - a
1% increase in real credit produces a 0.23% increase in real farm output, of
course, on the
ceteris paribus
assumption.
The above results were based on the RBI’s
Handbook
data series
available up to 2009-10, which has a serious question of kinks in the time
series. In this sub-section, we have reviewed the progress of agricultural credit
based on ground-level flow data regularly published by NABARD. These data
also have some blemishes but their merit is that they are consistent series
and hence amenable to some econometric exercises, which is what we have
attempted here.
Table 5.13 presents the basic data on farm credit flow and GDP – both
real
and
nominal
as well as credit intensity. The data show how credit intensity
Table 5.13: Basic Data on Real Farm Credit Flow and
Real GDP and Credit Intensity
Agricultural
GDP - Nominal
(
`
Crore)
Agricultural
GDP - Real
(
`
Crore)
GDP
Deflator
(2004-05)
Agriculture
Credit-Nominal
(
`
Crore)
Agriculture
Credit-Real
(
`
Crore)
Credit
intensity:
Credit to GDP
Ratio (%)
1991-92
180313
390201
46.2
11202
24247
6.21
1992-93
202219
416153
48.6
15169
31212
7.50
1993-94
234566
429981
54.6
16494
30209
7.03
1994-95
270107
450258
60.0
18744
31240
6.94
1995-96
293701
447127
65.7
22032
33534
7.50
1996-97
353142
491484
71.9
26411
36733
7.47
1997-98
374744
478933
78.2
31956
40864
8.53
1998-99
430384
509203
84.5
36860
43621
8.57
1999-00
455302
522795
87.1
46268
53121
10.16
2000-01
460608
522755
88.1
52827
59963
11.47
2001-02
498620
554157
90.0
62045
68939
12.44
2002-03
485080
517559
93.7
69560
74237
14.34
2003-04
544667
564391
96.5
86981
90136
15.97
2004-05
565426
565426
100.0
125309
125309
22.16
2005-06
637772
594487
107.3
180486
168207
28.29
2006-07
722984
619190
116.8
229400
196404
31.72
2007-08
836518
655080
127.7
254658
199419
30.44
2008-09
943204
655689
143.8
301908
209950
32.02
2009-10
1083514
660987
162.9
384514
236043
35.71
2010-11
1306942
713477
179.1
468291
261469
36.65
2011-12
1465753
739495
194.5
509040
261717
35.39
2012-13
1643145
752746
-
-
-
-
(-) Not Available
Source:
(i) For agricultural GDP, see CSO's National Accounts Statistics 2012 and earlier series; and
(ii) For agricultural credit, see Table 5.6 earlier.
